Demonetization

India is going through the process of demonetization where the currency notes of ₹500 and ₹1000 have been scrapped by the Prime Minister of India - Narendra Modi and people are required to accept new notes of ₹500 and ₹2000. It takes a lot of courage to make a decision like that. This will definitely have to go through the test of time, but will be great for India in the longer run. People won't be able to see the advantages initially, but here is a list of dividends/future predictions it may give in the short, medium and longer term -

  1. This gives a sense of pride and satisfaction to people who have been honestly paying taxes all these years. Basically, the salaried class. The mental peace cannot be put in words.
  2. It puts an end to dabba trading in one lethal head shot. The practice by some estimates was undertaken by brokers which was considered to be twice the size of actual stock market.
  3. The reality prices should come crashing down in few months down the line. We all know the 60/40 rule involved in every real estate transaction. This will make the prices of real estate effectively down by 40%.
  4. Terror funding will stop. In the coming few days, one may witness a lot of naxals surrendering to the government of india.
  5. Jammu & Kashmir will come out of curfew. It is no secret that a lot of fake money printed in Pakistan was circulating among people in that region to continue unrest.
  6. This gives a brilliant opportunity to all traders and middlemen, to have a fresh start in a business where you have a chance to play fair and not get marginalized because someone else is making money out of unfair means and hence more competitive.
  7. Inflation will be on a backfoot. Unaccounted money adds unnecessary liquidity to the market. So on a short term basis, there is less money available in the market chasing the same amount of supply of fruits, vegetables and commodities. Hence, prices will come down.
  8. Gold prices will go higher. People will continue to see it as safe haven and try to invest more in gold. But, they will always live in fear of the next similar move like demonetization, and besides gold prices are greatly affected with global turmoil. So this it is hard to make a call on this specifically for India.
  9. People will think twice before touching unaccounted wealth or creating further black money. They will have to be smarter and find new avenues. Hardly 1% will figure this out and come clean but a majority will fall for the IT Department.
  10. The money collected out of this exercise will be given back to the poor via Direct Benefit Transfer at an opportune time. Probably, around general elections to meet previous term election promises. Yes this is happening and you have to give credit to political acumen of Modi.
  11. The upcoming state elections will be held on clean grounds. No cash for vote scam will pop-up. You will see reduced funding of political parties and less rallies and speeches. 
  12. Rupee will gain in strength against other currencies (not necessarily dollar) over the longer run. This is because more money will become part of mainstream India's GDP.
  13. Bitcoin adoption in India will surge. There will be a lot of people who would hate this government meddling in currency. Isn't it why Bitcoin was born in first place?
  14. There will be stricter laws for people hiding black money. IT slabs for them will be separate with a very high penalty clause.
  15. Benami transactions will be closely tracked for all hoarders. The government make tighten the noose and pick this as its next battle against black money.
  16. A lot of companies used to give bonus in cash. Typically, around diwali and this was without a doubt - black money. Hence, there are going to be a lot of disgruntled employees asking the right questions from their employers.  
  17. India will be moving towards cashless economy. We will have reduced dependence on cash and more on cards. 
  18. A lot of fintech startups will pop-up around P2P cashless transactions. There will be a spurt initially for such startups which will later give way to consolidation and few unique winners.
  19. UPI - Unified Payment Interface will be adopted and will emerge as a clear winner of Demonetization. There will be campaigns required to promote the same.
  20. Younger generation will be teaching elder generation about how to manage money, be tech savvy and how can cashless transactions be done using smartphones. 
  21. I think the ₹2000 note is a temporary currency. It is put into the system with an aim to give a second blow to people hoarding black money. And it will be scrapped at an opportune time witnessing a much smoother transaction.
  22. Soon ₹500 will become and remain the highest denomination currency in foreseeable future.
  23. BJP is bound to win the upcoming assembly elections and going to be hard to ignore during 2019 general elections. They are actually meeting their promises - one by one.
Don't worry! I will keep adding to the list ... And then one can draw their own conclusions.