Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts

DonMod Phenomena

The word in the subject line - DonMod has no registered meaning in any of the modern dictionaries. However, I would like to coin one. It is a phenomena that has taken over two of the biggest democracies in the world - United States of America and India. And it has to do with the selection of their President of the US and Prime Minister of India by democratic voting system.

Let me further give short forms to the two big heads -
  1. POTUS - President Of The United States
  2. PMOI - Prime Minister Of India
Similarities defining DonMod Phenomena -
  1. No Political Descendents - Both POTUS and PMOI did not have any ancestors taking part directly in politics of these two countries. They are the product of their own generation and political knowledge acquired is not via inheritance.
  2. Businessman Joining Politics - While POTUS is widely considered to be a very successful businessman around reality space with his Trump brand, PMOI has branded himself as a tea seller. No matter how big or small, both came from business background.
  3. Common Agenda - Country first is probably the straight forward motto for both of them. Their speeches show their dedication towards doing something great about their country which they would like to take to further heights and make a name for themselves.
  4. Protectionist - POTUS and PMOI both cater to the majority of people who had been marginalized over the years because of their divided votes. They both gave an opportunity for this majority of people to unite and vote with a bang.
  5. Hate Political Class - They both in some fashion distanced themselves from the normal political class implying that they hate these corrupt political class of only words and no action. They mean business and business comes in action only.
  6. Talk Big - You know how great ideas are followed by great deeds. They do talk big, dream big and execute normal. But they have a striking PR and salesmanship with ability to project their actions in a spell bound fashion.
  7. Negotiators - Both POTUS and PMOI have been excellent negotiators, are part of some kind of common reach out program for other nations and try hard to sell their brand with the best bargain.
  8. Unfair Media Trial - Both POTUS during US elections and PMOI during Godhra riots have their share of reasons why they hate media because they were grossly misinterpreted and misrepresented in media trials that were nothing short of a circus.
  9. Appeal Old Laws - While POTUS did it with his first executive order which was to repeal ObamaCare, I remember pretty well that one of the first actions taken by PMOI was to make null and void hundreds of meaningly archaic indian laws.
  10. Risk Taking Ability - POTUS gave up his fledgling business to try his luck with Presidency. And PMOI introduced demonetization in India for the larger good to get rid of black money which has huge risk of losing on political capital. But they are not afraid to take risks.
  11. Won By Electoral System - Both won courtesy electoral system. While POTUS has one of the lowest approval ratings for any incoming president and did not even win popular vote, Modi had hardly 29% voting for his party and still managed to get complete majority.
And I am sure, there are many more. So, I haven't nailed it yet, but aren't these striking similarities. Together these two men are leaders of the largest chunk of population in the world. This is definitely some kind of precursor what is going on and the fact that things will be joined in the hip for these two great nations in the near future.


If you are still wondering about the word let me tell you, it is formed by the first three letters of their respective first name and last name - (Don)ald Trump and Narendra (Mod)i.

Demonetization

India is going through the process of demonetization where the currency notes of ₹500 and ₹1000 have been scrapped by the Prime Minister of India - Narendra Modi and people are required to accept new notes of ₹500 and ₹2000. It takes a lot of courage to make a decision like that. This will definitely have to go through the test of time, but will be great for India in the longer run. People won't be able to see the advantages initially, but here is a list of dividends/future predictions it may give in the short, medium and longer term -

  1. This gives a sense of pride and satisfaction to people who have been honestly paying taxes all these years. Basically, the salaried class. The mental peace cannot be put in words.
  2. It puts an end to dabba trading in one lethal head shot. The practice by some estimates was undertaken by brokers which was considered to be twice the size of actual stock market.
  3. The reality prices should come crashing down in few months down the line. We all know the 60/40 rule involved in every real estate transaction. This will make the prices of real estate effectively down by 40%.
  4. Terror funding will stop. In the coming few days, one may witness a lot of naxals surrendering to the government of india.
  5. Jammu & Kashmir will come out of curfew. It is no secret that a lot of fake money printed in Pakistan was circulating among people in that region to continue unrest.
  6. This gives a brilliant opportunity to all traders and middlemen, to have a fresh start in a business where you have a chance to play fair and not get marginalized because someone else is making money out of unfair means and hence more competitive.
  7. Inflation will be on a backfoot. Unaccounted money adds unnecessary liquidity to the market. So on a short term basis, there is less money available in the market chasing the same amount of supply of fruits, vegetables and commodities. Hence, prices will come down.
  8. Gold prices will go higher. People will continue to see it as safe haven and try to invest more in gold. But, they will always live in fear of the next similar move like demonetization, and besides gold prices are greatly affected with global turmoil. So this it is hard to make a call on this specifically for India.
  9. People will think twice before touching unaccounted wealth or creating further black money. They will have to be smarter and find new avenues. Hardly 1% will figure this out and come clean but a majority will fall for the IT Department.
  10. The money collected out of this exercise will be given back to the poor via Direct Benefit Transfer at an opportune time. Probably, around general elections to meet previous term election promises. Yes this is happening and you have to give credit to political acumen of Modi.
  11. The upcoming state elections will be held on clean grounds. No cash for vote scam will pop-up. You will see reduced funding of political parties and less rallies and speeches. 
  12. Rupee will gain in strength against other currencies (not necessarily dollar) over the longer run. This is because more money will become part of mainstream India's GDP.
  13. Bitcoin adoption in India will surge. There will be a lot of people who would hate this government meddling in currency. Isn't it why Bitcoin was born in first place?
  14. There will be stricter laws for people hiding black money. IT slabs for them will be separate with a very high penalty clause.
  15. Benami transactions will be closely tracked for all hoarders. The government make tighten the noose and pick this as its next battle against black money.
  16. A lot of companies used to give bonus in cash. Typically, around diwali and this was without a doubt - black money. Hence, there are going to be a lot of disgruntled employees asking the right questions from their employers.  
  17. India will be moving towards cashless economy. We will have reduced dependence on cash and more on cards. 
  18. A lot of fintech startups will pop-up around P2P cashless transactions. There will be a spurt initially for such startups which will later give way to consolidation and few unique winners.
  19. UPI - Unified Payment Interface will be adopted and will emerge as a clear winner of Demonetization. There will be campaigns required to promote the same.
  20. Younger generation will be teaching elder generation about how to manage money, be tech savvy and how can cashless transactions be done using smartphones. 
  21. I think the ₹2000 note is a temporary currency. It is put into the system with an aim to give a second blow to people hoarding black money. And it will be scrapped at an opportune time witnessing a much smoother transaction.
  22. Soon ₹500 will become and remain the highest denomination currency in foreseeable future.
  23. BJP is bound to win the upcoming assembly elections and going to be hard to ignore during 2019 general elections. They are actually meeting their promises - one by one.
Don't worry! I will keep adding to the list ... And then one can draw their own conclusions.